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2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

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2004 United States presidential election in Colorado

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout88.6% (of registered voters)
62.7% (of voting age population)
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 9 0
Popular vote 1,101,255 1,001,732
Percentage 51.69% 47.02%

County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Colorado was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 4.67% margin of victory. Prior to the election, ten of twelve news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, although both campaigns targeted it as the Democratic candidate, John Kerry, was born in Colorado. On election day, Bush did carry Colorado, but by only about half the 8.4% margin he won over Al Gore in 2000. Additionally, Colorado voters decided not to pass a referendum that would have split their electoral vote for this and future presidential elections. This is the last time that Pueblo County voted for the losing candidate, and As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time the Republican nominee carried Colorado in a presidential election, as well as Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Larimer County, and Ouray County.[1] This is also the only presidential election that Broomfield County, created in 2001, has voted Republican.[1] It was also the first time any candidate received a million votes in the state. It was also the last time Colorado voted to the right of the nation as a whole in a presidential election. Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Clear Creek, Eagle, Gunnison, or Routt Counties since William Howard Taft in 1908, as well as the first to do so without carrying La Plata County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, and the first to do so without carrying San Juan County since Herbert Hoover in 1928. It also marked the only time since 1972 that the Democratic nominee lost their birth state.

Colorado was 1 of 9 states to back George W. Bush twice that only backed George H. W. Bush once, and 1 of 3 states to back George W. Bush twice but have not been won by a Republican since, the others being Nevada and Virginia.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report Lean R
Associated Press Lean R
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Lean R
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Lean R
Zogby International Likely D (flip)
Washington Dispatch Likely R

Polling

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Although considered a battleground state, Bush won almost every pre-election poll. The final three polls averaged Bush leading with 51% to 44%.[3]

Fundraising

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Bush raised $2,598,226.[4] Kerry raised $3,229,631.[5]

Advertising and visits

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In the fall election campaign, the Republican ticket visited Colorado 5 times. The Democratic ticket visited 7 times.[6] Bush and Kerry also heavily advertised each week. Bush spent just over $400,000 each week. Kerry spent over $500,000 each week.[7]

Analysis

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The key to Bush's victory in the state was winning most of the largely populated counties, such as Jefferson County, Douglas County, El Paso County, Arapahoe County, and Larimer County. Combined with his strength in rural Colorado, this offset Kerry's strength in Denver and Boulder County and in several smaller counties hosting ski resorts, such as Gunnison (Crested Butte), Eagle (Vail), Routt (Steamboat Springs), and La Plata (Purgatory Resort).

Nevertheless, Bush's margin in Colorado was reduced substantially with respect to 2000, even as nationally he improved from losing the popular vote by 0.5% to winning it by 2.5%. Kerry flipped seven counties—Gunnison, Eagle, Routt, La Plata, Clear Creek, Conejos, and San Juan, the last of which voted Democratic for the first time since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide.[a][8] Most critically, however, Bush's vote share in the city of Denver dipped from 30.9% to 29.3%--a lower vote share than Dole had received in the city in 1996—and his margin of defeat in Denver swelled from 31.0% to 40.3%, as Kerry won the highest vote share in the city of any nominee in over a century. Similarly, in Boulder County, the other large blue jurisdiction in the state at the time, Bush's vote share dipped from 36.4% to 32.4%--again, below Dole's in 1996—and Kerry expanded Gore's 13.7% margin to 33.9%, as he posted the best showing in the county of any nominee since Eisenhower in 1956. Meanwhile, Bush's margin shrank markedly in Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer Counties, in all of which Kerry gained substantially on Gore. Bush's vote share actually receded slightly in Arapahoe and Larimer. All of these trends continued into 2008 and beyond, contributing to making Colorado a lean-Democratic, and, by 2020, a relatively solidly Democratic, state. Despite what at the time was a historically low vote share in Denver, Bush remains, as of 2020, the last Republican to have cracked even a quarter of the vote in Denver.

At the same time, Bush also had areas of improvement in Colorado. He increased his margin in then-staunchly Republican El Paso County by 1.5%, and cut Kerry's margin in Pueblo County, historically the largest Democratic stronghold in the state, from 11.3% to 6.3%, posting the best showing for a Republican in the county since 1984. He also flipped Huerfano County, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Nixon's 1972 landslide;[8] his win there reflected what was, for a Republican, his strong appeal amongst Hispanic voters, which also helped him narrowly carry New Mexico and boosted his margin in his home state of Texas.

Bush carried Colorado despite it being Kerry's birth state. Ironically, Bush simultaneously lost his own birth state of Connecticut, making this the only election since 1864 where neither candidate carried their birth state.

Results

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2004 United States presidential election in Colorado[9]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 1,101,255 51.69% 9
Democratic John Kerry 1,001,732 47.02% 0
Reform Ralph Nader 12,718 0.60% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 7,664 0.36% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 2,562 0.12% 0
Green David Cobb 1,591 0.07% 0
Independent Stanford Andress 804 0.04% 0
Independent Write-Ins 700 0.03% 0
Concerns of People Gene Amondson 378 0.02% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 329 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 241 0.01% 0
Socialist Walt Brown 216 0.01% 0
Prohibition Earl Dodge 140 0.01% 0
Totals 2,130,330 100.00% 9
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 62.7%

Results by county

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County George W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Adams 65,912 48.22% 69,122 50.57% 1,643 1.20% -3,210 -2.35% 136,677
Alamosa 3,179 50.63% 3,017 48.05% 83 1.32% 162 2.58% 6,279
Arapahoe 119,475 51.42% 110,262 47.45% 2,628 1.13% 9,213 3.97% 232,365
Archuleta 3,601 61.67% 2,141 36.67% 97 1.66% 1,460 25.00% 5,839
Baca 1,680 76.85% 483 22.10% 23 1.05% 1,197 54.75% 2,186
Bent 1,338 62.09% 785 36.43% 32 1.48% 553 25.66% 2,155
Boulder 51,586 32.39% 105,564 66.28% 2,109 1.33% -53,978 -33.89% 159,259
Broomfield 12,007 51.68% 10,935 47.06% 293 1.26% 1,072 4.62% 23,235
Chaffee 4,875 55.59% 3,766 42.94% 129 1.47% 1,109 12.65% 8,770
Cheyenne 923 81.39% 198 17.46% 13 1.14% 725 63.93% 1,134
Clear Creek 2,522 44.93% 2,989 53.25% 102 1.81% -467 -8.32% 5,613
Conejos 1,864 49.01% 1,894 49.80% 45 1.18% -30 -0.79% 3,803
Costilla 566 32.16% 1,170 66.48% 24 1.36% -604 -34.32% 1,760
Crowley 1,006 67.38% 478 32.02% 9 0.60% 528 35.36% 1,493
Custer 1,657 68.25% 739 30.44% 32 1.32% 918 37.81% 2,428
Delta 9,722 68.66% 4,224 29.83% 213 1.51% 5,498 38.83% 14,159
Denver 69,903 29.27% 166,135 69.56% 2,788 1.17% -96,232 -40.29% 238,826
Dolores 785 68.44% 333 29.03% 29 2.53% 452 39.41% 1,147
Douglas 80,651 66.54% 39,661 32.72% 889 0.73% 40,990 33.82% 121,201
Eagle 8,533 46.10% 9,744 52.64% 234 1.26% -1,211 -6.54% 18,511
El Paso 161,361 66.74% 77,648 32.11% 2,779 1.15% 83,713 34.63% 241,788
Elbert 8,389 73.82% 2,834 24.94% 141 1.24% 5,555 48.88% 11,364
Fremont 12,313 66.46% 5,933 32.03% 280 1.51% 6,380 34.43% 18,526
Garfield 11,123 53.87% 9,228 44.69% 296 1.44% 1,895 9.18% 20,647
Gilpin 1,329 41.58% 1,807 56.54% 60 1.88% -478 -14.96% 3,196
Grand 4,260 55.99% 3,243 42.62% 106 1.40% 1,017 13.37% 7,609
Gunnison 3,479 41.32% 4,782 56.79% 159 1.88% -1,303 -15.47% 8,420
Hinsdale 355 58.97% 236 39.20% 11 1.83% 119 19.77% 602
Huerfano 1,701 50.09% 1,656 48.76% 39 1.15% 45 1.33% 3,396
Jackson 710 76.02% 210 22.48% 14 1.50% 500 53.54% 934
Jefferson 140,644 51.79% 126,558 46.60% 4,366 1.61% 14,086 5.19% 271,568
Kiowa 712 79.82% 172 19.28% 8 0.90% 540 60.54% 892
Kit Carson 2,721 77.70% 729 20.82% 52 1.50% 1,992 56.88% 3,502
La Plata 11,704 45.87% 13,409 52.56% 400 1.57% -1,705 -6.69% 25,513
Lake 1,261 42.76% 1,623 55.04% 65 2.21% -362 -12.28% 2,949
Larimer 75,884 51.82% 68,266 46.62% 2,286 1.56% 7,618 5.20% 146,436
Las Animas 3,196 48.48% 3,300 50.06% 96 1.46% -104 -1.58% 6,592
Lincoln 1,819 77.83% 503 21.52% 15 0.64% 1,316 56.31% 2,337
Logan 6,168 70.36% 2,491 28.42% 107 1.22% 3,677 41.94% 8,766
Mesa 41,539 67.12% 19,564 31.61% 782 1.27% 21,975 35.51% 61,885
Mineral 383 61.87% 227 36.67% 9 1.45% 156 25.20% 619
Moffat 4,247 74.18% 1,355 23.67% 123 2.15% 2,892 50.51% 5,725
Montezuma 6,988 63.44% 3,867 35.11% 160 1.45% 3,121 28.33% 11,015
Montrose 11,218 69.17% 4,776 29.45% 225 1.39% 6,442 39.72% 16,219
Morgan 6,787 68.31% 3,039 30.59% 110 1.10% 3,748 37.72% 9,936
Otero 4,947 60.48% 3,164 38.68% 69 0.85% 1,783 21.80% 8,180
Ouray 1,402 51.53% 1,278 46.97% 41 1.51% 124 4.56% 2,721
Park 4,781 57.21% 3,445 41.22% 131 1.57% 1,336 15.99% 8,357
Phillips 1,717 73.85% 582 25.03% 26 1.12% 1,135 48.82% 2,325
Pitkin 2,784 30.08% 6,335 68.44% 137 1.48% -3,551 -38.36% 9,256
Prowers 3,392 71.49% 1,308 27.57% 45 0.95% 2,084 43.92% 4,745
Pueblo 31,117 46.31% 35,369 52.64% 701 1.04% -4,252 -6.33% 67,187
Rio Blanco 2,403 80.02% 566 18.85% 34 1.14% 1,837 61.17% 3,003
Rio Grande 3,448 62.40% 2,006 36.30% 72 1.30% 1,442 26.10% 5,526
Routt 5,199 44.20% 6,392 54.34% 171 1.46% -1,193 -10.14% 11,762
Saguache 1,163 41.49% 1,594 56.87% 46 1.64% -431 -15.38% 2,803
San Juan 216 44.44% 253 52.06% 17 3.50% -37 -7.62% 486
San Miguel 1,079 26.85% 2,876 71.56% 64 1.59% -1,797 -44.71% 4,019
Sedgwick 971 71.40% 374 27.50% 15 1.10% 597 43.90% 1,360
Summit 5,370 39.10% 8,144 59.29% 221 1.62% -2,774 -20.19% 13,735
Teller 8,094 68.35% 3,556 30.03% 192 1.62% 4,538 38.32% 11,842
Washington 2,050 81.03% 455 17.98% 25 0.98% 1,595 63.05% 2,530
Weld 55,591 62.71% 31,868 35.95% 1,194 1.34% 23,723 26.76% 88,653
Yuma 3,456 75.81% 1,064 23.34% 39 0.85% 2,392 52.47% 4,559
Total 1,101,256 51.69% 1,001,725 47.02% 27,344 1.28% 99,531 4.67% 2,130,325
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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Results by congressional district

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Bush won 4 of 7 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 31% 68% Diana DeGette
2nd 41% 58% Mark Udall
3rd 55% 44% Scott McInnis
John Salazar
4th 58% 41% Marilyn Musgrave
5th 66% 33% Joel Hefley
6th 60% 39% Tom Tancredo
7th 48% 51% Bob Beauprez

Electors

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Technically the voters of Colorado cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Colorado is allocated 9 electors because it has seven congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of nine electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all nine electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[11]

  1. Theodore S. Halaby
  2. Robert A. Martinez
  3. Lilly Y. Nunez
  4. Cynthia H. Murphy
  5. Sylvia Morgan-Smith
  6. Diane B. Gallagher
  7. Vicki A. Edwards
  8. Frances W. Owens
  9. Booker T. Graves

Failed election reform

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There was a Constitutional amendment put on the ballot in the state to alter the way the state's electors would be distributed among presidential candidates, but was rejected by the voters in 2004.

Notes

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  1. ^ San Juan County actually gave a plurality to Independent Ross Perot in 1992, but gave a Republican plurality in every other presidential election between 1968 and 2000.

References

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  1. ^ a b Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  2. ^ "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved June 6, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on November 16, 2008. Retrieved June 20, 2009.
  4. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  7. ^ "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  8. ^ a b Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 159-161 ISBN 0786422173
  9. ^ "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com.
  10. ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". www.swingstateproject.com.
  11. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". www.archives.gov. May 20, 2019.